The long wait for the Kentucky Derby in 2022 is slowly coming towards an end. The final prep races before the Triple Crown season gets underway all take place in April, with the biggest races all offering 100 qualifying points, and effectively a spot in the field.
Historical trends show some of the final prep races that take place could have a massive bearing on the Kentucky Derby odds for the big race. But, what are the three biggest races remaining, and who could be some of the stars that we see lining up?
Wood Memorial Stakes
One of the most prestigious races on the prep trail yet to be run is the Wood Memorial. This race takes place on April 9th and will offer 100 qualifying points to the winner. However, while it is one of the most prestigious races in the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby, it hasn’t had a successful record in the opening Triple Crown race itself in recent years. In fact, no winner of the Wood Memorial has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby since 2000.
Many have begun to wonder whether the race is cursed, as impressive winners have suffered from lameness, including 2011 winner Toby’s Corner and 2010 winner Eskendereya. The last horse to win this race before claiming the spoils in the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus.
This year’s race already looks to be a wide-open contest, with Saffie Joseph Jr’s A.P’s Secret and Morello for Steven Asmussen looking primed to run. However, Mo Donegal may be the outstanding selection, as the three-year-old has already shown his class at Aqueduct, having won the G2 Ramsen in December.
Blue Grass Stakes
The Blue Grass Stakes, or Toyota Blue Grass Stakes due to sponsorship reasons, is run on the same day as the Wood Memorial. The race is one of the most lucrative on the Kentucky Derby trail and is worth $1,000,000. This race is run at Keeneland over a distance of 1 1/8 miles, and has taken place on the dirt since 2014. However, like the Wood Memorial, it also hasn’t been the most successful when it comes to producing Kentucky Derby winners.
Last year’s winner of this race was Essential Quality, who went into the Triple Crown opener as a very hot favorite. However, he could only finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby. No winner of this race has won the Kentucky Derby for over ten years, but that doesn’t mean that a talented crop of three-year-olds will look to avoid the lucrative Grade 2.
A number of excellent contenders will line up this year in the Blue Grass, including Rebel Stakes runner-up Ethereal Road, and the runner-up in the Tampa Bay Derby, Grantham. Smith Happy for Kenneth McPeek is also expected to take on the Blue Grass Stakes, which could set the scene for a mouth-watering re-match against Classic Causeway just weeks before the Kentucky Derby.
The two clashed in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in November, with Smile Happy gaining the win. However, Classic Causeway has returned to form this year with a pair of graded wins in the G3 Sam F. Davis and G2 Tampa Bay Derby.
Santa Anita Derby
The final big prep race on April 9th comes in the form of the Santa Anita Derby. Unlike the two previously mentioned races, this has a solid recent history of producing Kentucky Derby winners. Three of the last four winners of the opening Triple Crown race have passed through this Grade 1, including the first two horses past the winning line in the Kentucky Derby.
Both Medina Spirit and Authentic finished second in the Santa Anita Derby before winning the Kentucky Derby. However, Medina Spirit was later disqualified.
History has often been made in this race, as Winning Colors became the first, and only filly to win both the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, Affirmed won the Santa Anita Derby on his way to winning all three Triple Crown races.
This race is likely to present two ex-Bob Baffert trained horses a final chance to make it into the Kentucky Derby, with both Messier and McLaren Vale being targeted towards the race. Meanwhile, one of the big market movers ahead of the opening Triple Crown race, Forbidden Kingdom, is also likely to line up here after winning the G2 San Felipe last time out.